Net overseas migration hit a record 538,000 in 2022–23 while one home was built for every 3.2 net arrivals, and 2.97 million people now live here on temporary visas. Sovereign Australia sets the number at 160,000 a year — in public, tied to the homes actually built — keeps all three streams, tightens who is selected, restores labour market testing, and publishes the migration data live instead of once a year.
Australian immigration is argued about with three different numbers. The permanent Migration Program is 185,000 places a year. Net overseas migration — arrivals minus departures — was 306,000 in 2024–25, down from the record 538,000 of 2022–23. And 2.97 million people are in the country right now on temporary visas. A person quoting 185,000 and a person quoting 538,000 are not disagreeing about a fact; they are quoting different measurements. Governments have used that confusion for years, because the reassuring number can always be put forward while the larger ones move on their own.
The permanent program has barely moved in fifteen years. The temporary system tripled — from under a million people two decades ago to 2.97 million now — and it is largely uncapped: students, graduate visa holders, working holiday makers, temporary skilled workers, and 432,000 people on bridging visas waiting for a decision. Nearly all of the record post-COVID surge came through this system. At the peak, one new home was built for every 3.2 net arrivals. Rents and prices moved the way arithmetic says they must.
The permanent program is described as roughly 71 per cent skilled. But every visa counts the primary applicant and their family unit against the same stream — and in 2024–25, only 45.8 per cent of Skill stream places went to the skilled primary applicant. Primary applicants were 32.7 per cent of the whole program. A program labelled 71 per cent skilled delivered about one-third of its visas to skilled workers; the selection tests — points, occupation lists, skills assessment — apply to the primary applicant only. The full breakdown, charted and sourced, is in Memo 13 below.
Net overseas migration of 160,000 a year — roughly the rate Australia ran for decades before the mid-2000s ramp-up. The number is set in public, measured against the homes actually built, and reported against target as it happens. Not a forecast the country finds out was wrong two years later: a stated number, publicly tracked.
The program keeps its three parts. Skilled — prioritising healthcare, aged care, engineering, construction trades and agricultural and regional work. Family reunion — capped, with the sponsor carrying formal financial responsibility for who they bring. Humanitarian — maintained at the current commitment, not cut. This is a controlled program, not a closed door.
English proficiency is non-negotiable for permanent residency, and every applicant sits a substantive civic values assessment: Australian law, the democratic system, the equality of men and women, freedom of religion including the freedom to have none, and the rule of law over any religious or customary authority. Cultural assimilation is not required — civic commitment is. You do not have to eat, dress or worship like anyone else. You do have to accept the rules everyone here lives under.
Labour Market Testing becomes mandatory everywhere, and real: a 28-day advertisement through Workforce Australia, documented consideration of Australian applicants, written certification under criminal penalty, and salary at or above market rate — skills we are short of, not wages we can undercut. On top of it sits an automatic gate: where JobSeeker recipients in an occupation and region exceed 3 per cent, the corresponding visa category closes there automatically. No minister decides. The numbers decide.
International student commencements are capped at 180,000 a year, lifting automatically to 250,000 when rental vacancy in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane holds at 3 per cent for two consecutive quarters — the trigger is legislated, with no ministerial discretion. The graduate visa is cut to 12 months, non-extendable, with no work rights for accompanying family. Bridging visas are capped at 12 months: decision or depart. Entry to the temporary system has been controlled for years; this controls the exit from it.
New permanent arrivals carry a five-year residence condition outside Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as a visa condition — breach triggers review. A Regional Settlement Support Fund backs the towns receiving people; local governments can nominate the skilled categories their district actually needs; and an Agricultural Community Stream ties farm-sector migration to the communities that depend on it. The parts of the country that have been asking for people for decades finally get them.
No welfare for five years from the grant of permanent residency. Humanitarian entrants are exempt — the refugee program exists precisely for people who could not plan their arrival. For everyone else, permanent residency is a commitment to contribute, and the waiting period says so in law. (The current system already imposes four years; Sovereign Australia sets five, and states it plainly instead of burying it.)
Migration data moves onto the Digital Australia Authority's live infrastructure: arrivals and departures, visas on issue by subclass, bridging numbers, and the running total against the 160,000 target — updated as the department updates its own records, published on the People's Portal. The Annual Migration Transparency Report, tabled in Parliament within ninety days of each financial year's end, becomes the analysis and forward projection rather than the only time the public sees the numbers. You cannot fix what you cannot see.
Agricultural worker programs are audited annually; an employer found exploiting workers loses accreditation immediately and faces civil penalty — and the worker is protected rather than deported while the investigation runs, so reporting abuse does not cost the victim their visa. Overstay enforcement is risk-based, with compassionate consideration for long-term residents with family here and no adverse record. People smuggling is met through regional cooperation, offshore processing where legally compliant, and reduction of the push factors that fill the boats.
| Current — The Problem | Sovereign Australia — The Solution |
|---|---|
| Net migration set by forecast; the record year missed Treasury's projection by hundreds of thousands. | 160,000 a year, set in public, tracked live against the homes actually built. |
| 2.97 million temporary visa holders — the largest part of the system, largely uncapped. | Student commencements capped at 180,000, lifting to 250,000 only on a legislated 3% rental-vacancy trigger. No ministerial discretion. |
| Graduate visas extendable for years, with family work rights; 432,000 people on bridging visas. | Graduate visa 12 months, non-extendable, no accompanying-family work rights. Bridging capped at 12 months — decision or depart. |
| Labour market testing widely waived or reduced to a formality. | Mandatory everywhere: 28-day advertising, documented applicants, certification under criminal penalty, market-rate salary — plus the automatic 3% JobSeeker gate by occupation and region. |
| Arrivals concentrate in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane while regions stay short of people. | Five-year residence condition outside the three capitals, a Regional Settlement Support Fund, and local nomination of the skills each district needs. |
| Migration data published annually, revised later, argued about permanently. | Published live on the DAA People's Portal: arrivals, departures, visas on issue, bridging numbers, the running total against target. |
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Memo 13 — Immigration: The Current Situation. The factual record this policy answers: net overseas migration over four decades with the series break marked, the permanent program by stream, who actually receives the visas — primaries and secondaries — the humanitarian program, the temporary system where the growth actually is, welfare access rules, and how visa cancellation works. Four charts, nineteen sources, no policy stated.